NationNewsPoliticsTechFact CheckPersonal FinanceAutomotiveSportsBetter WorkplacesWorldRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaBetter PlanetAll World NewsLifestyleFamily & ParentingEntertainmentTravelPetsRelationshipsScienceHealthOpinionMy TurnAll OpinionRankingsHealthFinanceProductsEducationWorkplacesCorporate ResponsibilityAll RankingsConnectNewslettersFacebookInstagramYouTubeTikTokTwitter/XRedditAnnouncementsLeadershipDev PragadMoreNewsmakersUnconventionalEventsPodcastsVantageReaders ChoiceMagazineCEO CircleSubscribeSign InNationNewsPoliticsTechFact CheckPersonal FinanceAutomotiveSportsBetter WorkplacesWorldRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaBetter PlanetAll World NewsLifestyleFamily & ParentingEntertainmentTravelPetsRelationshipsScienceHealthOpinionMy TurnAll OpinionRankingsHealthFinanceProductsEducationWorkplacesCorporate ResponsibilityAll RankingsConnectNewslettersFacebookInstagramYouTubeTikTokTwitter/XRedditAnnouncementsLeadershipDev PragadMoreNewsmakersUnconventionalEventsPodcastsVantageReaders ChoiceMagazineCEO Circle WorldCoronavirusBoris JohnsonNews ArticleU.K.’s Coronavirus Death Toll Could Have Halved If Lockdown Was Week Earlier, Former Adviser AdmitsPublishedJun 10, 2020 at 11:53 AM EDTupdatedJun 10, 2020 at 12:54 PM EDTBy Basit MahmoodNews reporterShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberThe U.K. government could have halved the number of deaths resulting from COVID-19, if it had imposed stringent lockdown measures a week earlier, a former government adviser has said.Professor Neil Ferguson, whose projection models for the spread of the virus played a key role in helping to formulate the government's response, made the comments during a House of Commons Science and Technology Committee briefing.He said: "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced."So, had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have then reduced the final death toll by at least a half", Ferguson said."Whilst I think the measures, given what we knew about this virus then in terms of its transmission and its lethality, were warranted - I wouldn't second-guess them at this point - certainly had we introduced them earlier, we would have seen many fewer deaths."Professor Ferguson said he agreed with the decisions taken by the government, but questioned whether they were taken at the right time.The U.K. currently has the second highest death toll from COVID-19 in the world, behind only the U.S.Read MoreAs Prince Philip Turns 99, Pictures of Queen Elizabeth II and the Duke of Edinburgh Over the Years3 min readU.K. Prime Minister Eases COVID-19 Lockdown Restrictions and Allows ‘Support Bubbles’3 min readPutin Is Tightening His Grip on Russia but Coronavirus Makes Him Weaker Than Ever6 min readWhen Professor Ferguson was asked what went wrong he said:"I think two things - one is a paper actually out in Nature, which highlights that around about that time, just before lockdown happened, the first two weeks of March, we probably had 1,500 to 2,000 infections imported from Italy and Spain, which we just hadn't seen in the surveillance data, until that point...."So there is much heavier seeding than we'd expected."Professor Ferguson said that the government had "underestimated how far into the epidemic this country was, that's half the reason."He said: "The second part, which I think would have been more avoidable, is about half of those deaths occurred in care homes."He said that government policy at the time was that care homes would be shielded from infection.In March, Prof Ferguson estimated that the pandemic would cause at most 20,000 deaths.According to the latest figures from the Department of Health, a further 245 people in the U.K. have died with coronavirus as of 5pm on Tuesday, taking the total to 41,128 deaths.Request Reprint & LicensingSubmit CorrectionView Editorial & AI GuidelinesAdd Newsweek as a preferred source on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search.Related PodcastsTop StoriesLive BlogIran War Updates: Six Troops Killed As Trump Says War Will Be Over When ‘I Feel It in My Bones’3 min readFor MembersAnalysisCuba Learns From Maduro’s Mistakes—and Bows to Trump8 min readWorldWhat We Know as USS Tripoli Sends Thousands of Marines to Middle East2 min readNewsH-1B Visa Update: Trump’s New Plan Is Losing US Money4 min readPoliticsGOP Senator Issues Warning to Trump After Fresh Legal Blow5 min readFor MembersAnalysisA War in Iran, a Lifeline for Putin7 min readTrendingSocial SecuritySocial Security Announces Big Change Impacting Millions5 min readGreen CardGreen Card Update: Visa‑Free Entry Rules Change For US Permanent Residents3 min readExtreme weatherWarnings Issued as Millions in 13 States Told to Avoid Windows for 12 Hours3 min readWalmartWalmart Nationwide Recall Update: Customers Warned to Throw Away Products4 min readFamilyToddler Wakes Up at 1AM, Hysterics at What Mom Notices on Baby Cam3 min readOpinionFor MembersOpinionConventional Wisdom: Iran War, Week 2 Edition5 min readOpinionWhat Is Victory in Operation Epic Fury?6 min readOpinionWhat the Critics Have Wrong About the Iran Conflict | Opinion4 min readFor MembersOpinionConventional Wisdom: Oil Shock Edition4 min readOpinionThe War With Iran Is Reaching Places You Might Not Expect | Opinion7 min readsectionsNationWorldLifestyleHealthOpinionRankingscompanyAbout UsMastheadCareersDiversity & InclusionMission StatementLeadershipeditionsU.S. Edition日本PolskaRomâniacontactAdvertiseCorrectionsAnnouncementsPress CenterContact Usterms of useCookie PolicyCopyrightPrivacy PolicyTerms & ConditionsTerms of SalePrivacy SettingssectionsNationWorldLifestyleHealthOpinionRankingscompanyAbout UsMastheadCareersDiversity & InclusionMission StatementLeadershipeditionsU.S. Edition日本PolskaRomâniacontactAdvertiseCorrectionsAnnouncementsPress CenterContact Usterms of useCookie PolicyCopyrightPrivacy PolicyTerms & ConditionsTerms of SalePrivacy Settings© 2026 Newsweek Digital LLC