Live UpdatesBondi Shooting Suspect Naveed Akram Believed to Have Had ISIS Link NationNewsPoliticsTechFact CheckPersonal FinanceAutomotiveSportsBetter WorkplacesWorldRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaBetter PlanetAll World NewsLifestyleFamily & ParentingEntertainmentTravelPetsRelationshipsScienceHealthOpinionMy TurnAll OpinionRankingsHealthFinanceProductsEducationWorkplacesCorporate ResponsibilityAll RankingsConnectNewslettersFacebookInstagramYouTubeTikTokTwitter/XRedditAnnouncementsLeadershipDev PragadMoreUnconventionalEventsPodcastsVantageReaders ChoiceNewsweek.AISubscribeSign InNationNewsPoliticsTechFact CheckPersonal FinanceAutomotiveSportsBetter WorkplacesWorldRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaBetter PlanetAll World NewsLifestyleFamily & ParentingEntertainmentTravelPetsRelationshipsScienceHealthOpinionMy TurnAll OpinionRankingsHealthFinanceProductsEducationWorkplacesCorporate ResponsibilityAll RankingsConnectNewslettersFacebookInstagramYouTubeTikTokTwitter/XRedditAnnouncementsLeadershipDev PragadMoreUnconventionalEventsPodcastsVantageReaders ChoiceNewsweek.AI WorldCoronavirusBoris JohnsonNews ArticleU.K.’s Coronavirus Death Toll Could Have Halved If Lockdown Was Week Earlier, Former Adviser AdmitsPublishedJun 10, 2020 at 11:53 AM EDTupdatedJun 10, 2020 at 12:54 PM EDTBy Basit MahmoodNews reporterShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberThe U.K. government could have halved the number of deaths resulting from COVID-19, if it had imposed stringent lockdown measures a week earlier, a former government adviser has said.Professor Neil Ferguson, whose projection models for the spread of the virus played a key role in helping to formulate the government's response, made the comments during a House of Commons Science and Technology Committee briefing.He said: "The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced."So, had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have then reduced the final death toll by at least a half", Ferguson said."Whilst I think the measures, given what we knew about this virus then in terms of its transmission and its lethality, were warranted - I wouldn't second-guess them at this point - certainly had we introduced them earlier, we would have seen many fewer deaths."Professor Ferguson said he agreed with the decisions taken by the government, but questioned whether they were taken at the right time.The U.K. currently has the second highest death toll from COVID-19 in the world, behind only the U.S.Read MoreAs Prince Philip Turns 99, Pictures of Queen Elizabeth II and the Duke of Edinburgh Over the Years3 min readU.K. Prime Minister Eases COVID-19 Lockdown Restrictions and Allows ‘Support Bubbles’3 min readPutin Is Tightening His Grip on Russia but Coronavirus Makes Him Weaker Than Ever6 min readWhen Professor Ferguson was asked what went wrong he said:"I think two things - one is a paper actually out in Nature, which highlights that around about that time, just before lockdown happened, the first two weeks of March, we probably had 1,500 to 2,000 infections imported from Italy and Spain, which we just hadn't seen in the surveillance data, until that point...."So there is much heavier seeding than we'd expected."Professor Ferguson said that the government had "underestimated how far into the epidemic this country was, that's half the reason."He said: "The second part, which I think would have been more avoidable, is about half of those deaths occurred in care homes."He said that government policy at the time was that care homes would be shielded from infection.In March, Prof Ferguson estimated that the pandemic would cause at most 20,000 deaths.According to the latest figures from the Department of Health, a further 245 people in the U.K. have died with coronavirus as of 5pm on Tuesday, taking the total to 41,128 deaths.Request Reprint & LicensingSubmit CorrectionView Editorial & AI GuidelinesAdd Newsweek as a preferred source on Google to see more of our trusted coverage when you search.Recommended For YouWorldWho Is Naveed Akram? Alleged Bondi Beach Shooter3 min readNewsThailand Reports First Civilian Death in Cambodian Clashes4 min readWorldNATO Nation Starts Building Concrete Bunkers on Russian Border3 min readWorldHow Russia’s Hybrid Attacks Are NATO’s Permanent Reality5 min readWorldZelensky Ready To Make Major Concession in Ukraine Peace Talks: Report4 min readWorldIsrael’s Druze Leader Wants Trump to Challenge His New Friend in Syria12 min readRelated PodcastsTop StoriesNewsPerson of Interest in Brown University Shooting to Be Released4 min readNewsRob Reiner, Wife’s Death at LA Home Investigated as Homicide: Live Updates2 min readWorldWho Are Naveed and Sajid Akram? Alleged Bondi Beach Shooters4 min readNewsTrump Admin Given Deadline To Remove National Guard From LA3 min readWorldZelensky Ready to Make Major Concession In Ukraine Peace Talks: Report4 min readNewsIlhan Omar Says Her Son Was Pulled Over by ICE Agents4 min readTrendingEPAThousands Urged To Stay Inside in California3 min readLive BlogPolice: Father and Son Suspects in Bondi Terror Attack That Killed 15 – Live Updates1 min readTelevisionNetflix Revives Cancelled NBC Show: Release Date and Details3 min readSnowWinter Storm Warning As 15 Inches of Snow Set to Strike3 min readDogsGolden Retriever and Cavalier Have Puppies, No One Ready for ‘Mini’ Result3 min readOpinionOpinionMotherhood Is Hard. Why Hollywood Is Finally Taking Notice | Opinion6 min readOpinionTrump’s Bailout Won’t Rescue America’s Farmers. Here’s What Can | Opinion5 min readOpinionIllicit Oil Is the Vulnerability We Should Be Targeting | Opinion5 min readOpinionWe Forced the Trump Admin to Follow the Law on Student Debt Relief | Opinion5 min readOpinionA U.S.-Saudi Partnership Cannot Be Built on Denial | Opinion4 min readTrending01Thousands Urged To Stay Inside in California3 min read02Police: Father and Son Suspects in Bondi Terror Attack That Killed 15 – Live Updates1 min read03Netflix Revives Cancelled NBC Show: Release Date and Details3 min read04Winter Storm Warning As 15 Inches of Snow Set to Strike3 min read05Golden Retriever and Cavalier Have Puppies, No One Ready for ‘Mini’ Result3 min readOpinionMotherhood Is Hard. Why Hollywood Is Finally Taking Notice | OpinionBy Sarah VaughanTrump’s Bailout Won’t Rescue America’s Farmers. Here’s What Can | OpinionBy Tim Ryan and Justin ZornIllicit Oil Is the Vulnerability We Should Be Targeting | OpinionBy Brett EricksonWe Forced the Trump Admin to Follow the Law on Student Debt Relief | OpinionBy Randi WeingartenA U.S.-Saudi Partnership Cannot Be Built on Denial | OpinionBy Terry StradasectionsNationWorldLifestyleHealthOpinionRankingscompanyAbout UsMastheadCareersDiversity & InclusionMission StatementLeadershipeditionsU.S. Edition日本PolskaRomâniacontactAdvertiseCorrectionsAnnouncementsPress CenterContact Usterms of useCookie PolicyCopyrightPrivacy PolicyTerms & ConditionsTerms of SalePrivacy SettingssectionsNationWorldLifestyleHealthOpinionRankingscompanyAbout UsMastheadCareersDiversity & InclusionMission StatementLeadershipeditionsU.S. Edition日本PolskaRomâniacontactAdvertiseCorrectionsAnnouncementsPress CenterContact Usterms of useCookie PolicyCopyrightPrivacy PolicyTerms & ConditionsTerms of SalePrivacy Settings© 2025 Newsweek Digital LLC